The Sliwa Fallacy… If Sliwa Drops Out Mamdani and Cuomo Share His Share Just As They Share The Current Total

A current poll shows Mamdani with a larger lead, winning 43 percent of likely voters compared with 28 percent for Cuomo, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa received 19 percent. The survey showed 8 percent of those polled were undecided.

If Sliwa drops out Mamdani and Cuomo would each share a percent of Sliwa’s current share and would wind up with 51% for Mamdani and 33% for Cuomo. Sliwa ia not a spoiler. Sliwa as a candidate. His share would be split in about the same ration as the current Mamdani – Cuomo ratio which is Mamdani gets about 54% more votes than Cuomo or Cuomo gets about 65% of the votes that Mamdani gets. Mamdani wins over Cuomo whether or not Sliwa stays in or drops out of the race. It’s almost a classic 60/40 split between Mamdani and Cuomo.

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