He’s ahead by at least 5% but the latest poll is the GRAVIS poll which is sharply skewed Left. When it’s corrected for: Democrat oversampling, Muslim oversampling, (2% versus 1%), Democrat oversampling, Tea Party undersampling, Trump is significantly ahead. The poll oversampled Catholics (25% versus less than 21%) and looks to have massively undersampled Evangelicals (10% versus 25%), resulting in even more Left/Liberal bias.
Evangelicals will vote dominantly for Trump, whereas Muslims and many Catholics are likely to lean toward Clinton.
A full 50% of the poll’s respondents had a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 34% in reality, introducing more Left – Liberal bias.
Based on the full range of Left and Liberal biases present in the poll, a reasonable estimate of Trump’s actual lead over Clinton is in the range of at least 5% once the polling data is corrected.