Trump has 646 delegates. He needs 591 more to win the nomination. Cruz needs 841 more delegates. Based on the results of March 15 Trump will get 62% of the remaining delegates. He only needs 52% of the remaining delegates to win. Cruz cannot win.
There are 1121 delegates left to win. Trump must win 41% of the remaining delegates. Cruz must win 59% but he’s never won more than 40.8% and that was in Missouri. In the five states tonight his average is 27.4%. Trumps average tonight was 40.5% so Trumps chances of winning are far greater than Cruz’s.
Marco Rubio dropped out and Kasich has only won one state. Kasich’s chances of getting one more win are just about zero so Trump and Cruz will split the remaining 1,121 delegates on the basis of 47.7% to 29.3%. Trump will win 47.7 divided by 57.9 or 82.4% of the remaining 1,131 votes which is 924 more delegates and Cruz will get 197. Trump will get a total of 1,570 delegates and Cruz will get 593. In other words Trump will go into the convention with 333 votes more than he needs. Cruz cannot win.
While the betting favors Trump to win enough delegates to be the nominee, there are two additional considerations. Some of the remaining states are proportional. So long as Trump wins his usual percentage he will win proportionally in the proportional states so he will get the predicted 686 additional delegates because the calculation was based on proportional allocations. But the Winner take all states will help Trump more than Cruz because if Trump wins his expected proportion he will win 100% of the delegates in the winner take all states. In other words he will win more than the 686 he needs because the winner take all process favors the frontrunner and penalizes Cruz.
There’s yet another effect. People instinctively like to vote for the winner. The idea of not wanting to waste their vote helps the frontrunner. In every horserace people try to pick the winner and that favors Trump. In addition people don’t like to vote for a loser. That favors Trump too.
There’s the bootstrap effect too. The better Trump does the more people will want to vote for him. Most people act like their neighbors. That favors the frontrunner. In addition some people just like to get on board and feel better if they vote like the neighbors. Winning helps winners. Trump is a winner.
In addition Trump wins over people with his personality, his plans and his vision for the future. He talks about what he want’s done to make America Great again more than he talks about what he will do as President. He’s on a bigger mission. He’s not running for President so he can become President. He’s running so he can Make America Great Again. Trump is a bigger thinker.
Trump knows what to do because he’s been super-successful with his life. He’s been able to win negotiations and his fortune proves he knows how to win. The people want a winner on their side and that’s the appeal trump has. He’s a winner who has done great and he wants to use his abilities and attributes to Make America Great Again. A vote for Trump is a vote to fix America. It’s more about America than it’s about Trump.
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