A bad luck number for New Orleans.
The Eagles need to keep New Orleans from scoring five less than their average 31 points and the Eagles need to score five points higher than their average of 22 per game. Initial estimated final score would be 27 – 26. Eagles. That seems impossible. A more realistic score for New Orleans against the Eagles would be 35 points. That’s five touchdowns. The Eagles would have to score at least six times. Five touchdowns and one two point conversion. Final score would be 36 – 35 Eagles.
Can the Eagles defense keep Brees from scoring five touchdowns? Well, there’s the problem. The Eagles secondary allows receivers to catch the ball too much. They are great at stopping the offense from running after the catch but the problem is some pass plays can gain maybe 15 or more yards and not many 25 yard plays are needed to score. The Eagles secondary will need to play great to stop the Saints receivers. Will they do that? Can they do that? Perhaps and yes.
The Eagles need five touchdowns. They will get at least three. The possibility for them to get four touchdowns seems high enough. That’s one less than they need to win. They need five. That seems too hard to predict but not out of the question at all and if they score one two pointer after a touchdown they win.
The Eagles get better as the game goes on. Both the offense and the defense seem to play better in the fourth quarter than they do in the first and second. Foles…
Foles is one of the leagues great quarterbacks. It’s not a question if he’s better than Brees although he probably will be against the Saints. The question is can the Eagles run enough to keep New Orleans tight to the line so the Eagles receivers can get free a bit easier? Certainly. Sproles is healthy. Tate is healthy. Adams is healthy. The Eagles running game will be one of the necessary surprises Pederson will use. Zach Ertz will run into double coverage on a lot of plays. He’ll make a few great catches of a few of Foles really great passes.
So the prediction is Eagles 36 to 35. A good bet is probably the Eagles and at least two points. That way you win if they lose by three but they’re going to win by one. An even money bet in this game against the Saints will probably lose. An even money bet for the Eagles would probably lose. That is the best way to bet this game. Eagles 36 – 35.
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