It was announced yesterday. See: 

In 2011 Dr. Rose, a newcomer to politics won a supervisor seat in Republican dominated Northampton Township but it was against a candidate tainted by scandal. In Northampton, a must win district for a Senate candidate, in 2013, two incumbent Democrat supervisors went down to a major defeat running against newcomer Barry Moore and Old Guard Larry Weinstein. Larry was elected several times as township auditor. He won a massive victory, getting more votes than any supervisor ever in Northampton.

The 6th Senate District may seem balanced because it includes lots of important Democratic areas  but it’s Republican. The re-districting made sure of that.

In addition, the Rose race will be a test for Bucks Democratic chairman John Cordisco. In Northampton township, Dr. Rose’s home district, the loss by two Democratic incumbents was caused partly by the cheap-shot drumbeat of anti-Rothermel attacks over the past six years. The Northampton Republican leadership should be ashamed of it’s behavior.

They justify their lousy rhetoric by saying they won. But they didn’t have to lower themselves. Weinstein proved to be a much stronger candidate than the Northampton Republican’s thought he was. There are other factors in addition to that but Kim is in much better political shape to run against Tomlinson so far as Northampton voters are concerned. Her advantages will be smothered by the powerful Bensalem Republicans.

Tomlinson has been in power since forever,- eighteen years, – three six year terms since winning in 1995. He’s in a changed district that includes a bit of Philly but it’s solid Republican. Tomlinson is very well known, well liked, entrenched by all the people for whom he did favors, he’s untouched by scandal and has plenty of dough. Advantage Tomlinson. 

The Northampton Democratic Committee is in better condition than it was a few years ago. Kim starts with a lot of visibility compared to other possible Democratic candidates but the visibility is limited to Northampton, not the entire 6th Senate district. Advantage Tomlinson.

Kim does not have to give up her supervisor position to get on the ballot for State Senate and if things go well for her in Northampton she could use her position in Northampton to campaign at least once a month on local TV. Tomlinson has no similar possibility.

OTOH, Tomlinson is an old seasoned Political Warhorse. He’s massively popular in the district centered on Republican dominated Bensalem with the DiGirolamo’s firmly entrenched. The re-districting shiftes some of the strong Republican areas away from Tomlinson to help the PA Republicans maintain control but despite losing some solid republican districts, Tomlinson is in great shape and will cruise to another term.

In addition there are plenty of energized Republicans and outraged Democrats because of the blowback against Obamacare which will hit many Democrats hard. That favors Tomlinson.

Many factors to consider here. No easy answers.  For those who like to bet it’s probably Tomlinson by ten points if Dr. Rose gets lots of help. Tomlinson is the odds-on favorite. Tomlinson wins again.  

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